Phoenix Market Shift: September 2026 Cromford Index Drop
Phoenix-area sellers got a reality check in September. According to the Cromford Report’s September 30, 2026 update, the Cromford® Market Index (CMI), a widely followed gauge of market balance, fell in 17 of the 18 major Greater Phoenix cities over the 30 days ending September 29. The average city lost about 10.5% of its reading, and Scottsdale was the only city to edge higher. Cromford reports this is the steepest September decline in at least 12 years.
If you’re thinking about selling, here’s what happened, why it matters, and how to protect your bottom line in a market that’s tilting toward buyers.
What the Cromford Report found
A lower CMI means conditions are moving in buyers’ favor. Cromford says that’s happening because of two forces at once. Supply rose in 17 of the 18 cities, while demand fell in 15 of them. Across Greater Phoenix, homes available for sale climbed roughly 7% in 30 days, while listings under contract plus recent closings dropped about 9%.
Some of that is normal end-of-summer behavior, as sellers return and the summer contract pipeline wraps up. But Cromford says the shift is bigger than the season alone explains. Its demand measure already adjusts for time of year, and it still fell in most cities.
The main driver, per Cromford, is a sharp rise in interest rates, with the 30-year fixed mortgage now just over 7.5%. Some buyers are stepping back to wait for lower prices or more concessions, and sellers who need to move are cutting prices, which can reinforce buyers’ decision to wait.
Where the biggest changes happened
Cromford highlighted several cities with large one-month drops in their index readings: Paradise Valley (down 29%), Fountain Hills (down 27%), Tempe (down 20%), Maricopa (down 17%), Surprise (down 15%), Mesa (down 12%) and Chandler (down 11%).
Tempe stands out. Cromford says it moved from a balanced market to a buyer’s market in a single month, with its index at the lowest level since December 2010. Peoria made the same move. Phoenix, Mesa, Gilbert and Glendale slipped from seller’s markets to balanced, and the number of seller’s market cities fell from 9 to 5: Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Chandler and Cave Creek. Cromford counts 8 cities as buyer’s markets.
The report’s perspective is worth keeping in mind: this is a sharp fall, but not a collapse. Many cities are now close to where they stood a year ago. Cromford also expects the index to keep sliding through October and the first half of November, with Pinal County, the Southeast Valley and West Valley cities offering buyers the most room to negotiate, while upscale northeast markets should stay comparatively seller-friendly.
What this means for sellers
In a shifting market, the rules for selling change. Based on the Cromford findings, sellers should expect:
- More competition. With more homes on the market, yours has to stand out in photos, pricing and presentation.
- More negotiation. Buyers who are still active know they have options and may ask for price reductions or concessions.
- Longer timelines in some areas. Cromford specifically notes that sellers in some weaker Pinal County communities will need patience.
- Pricing that matters more than ever. An overpriced listing tends to sit, and a stale listing invites lower offers.
Every market is local, and results vary by neighborhood and price point, so talk with a licensed professional about your specific situation.
Why the fee you pay matters more in a slower market
When buyers have leverage, every dollar of your sale proceeds counts. If you’re negotiating on price or concessions, the cost of selling is one of the few expenses you can control up front.
FlatAZ replaces the traditional percentage-based listing commission with a flat fee based on your home’s list price: $3,000 for homes up to $299,999, $4,500 for $300,000 to $394,999, $5,500 for $395,000 to $494,999, $7,500 for $495,000 to $694,999, $9,500 for $695,000 to $849,999, $11,000 for $850,000 to $999,999, and 1.5% of the sale price at $1,000,000 and above.
Compared with a traditional 3% listing commission, that works out like this:
| List price | Traditional 3% | FlatAZ flat fee | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| $250,000 | $7,500 | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| $400,000 | $12,000 | $5,500 | $6,500 |
| $600,000 | $18,000 | $7,500 | $10,500 |
| $850,000 | $25,500 | $11,000 | $14,500 |
Listing-side fee only; the buyer’s agent commission is separate and negotiated in your listing agreement. Figures use list price for illustration.
That difference can cover a meaningful price adjustment, a seller concession toward a buyer’s closing costs, or simply more money in your pocket at closing. And there’s no tradeoff in service: FlatAZ listings include MLS placement through ARMLS with syndication to Zillow, Realtor.com and Redfin, professional photography, a comparative market analysis, negotiation, contracts, and closing coordination.
There’s also no upfront cost. The fee is paid at closing from your proceeds, and if your home doesn’t sell, you pay nothing. In a market where some listings take longer, that’s real peace of mind.
Smart moves for sellers right now
First, price to the market you have, not the one from a few months ago. Cromford’s data shows that sellers who need to sell are already adjusting, and buyers are watching. Second, invest in presentation: strong photography and staging help a home stand out when buyers have more choices. Third, be ready to negotiate and know your numbers, including your net proceeds after the listing fee, the buyer’s agent commission you choose to offer, and closing costs. A lower listing fee gives you more flexibility at the negotiating table.
Thinking about selling?
If you’re weighing whether to list this fall, FlatAZ can give you a free home valuation and a clear picture of what you’d net with a flat fee. See our pricing or start here to sell, or call Vickie Green, Realtor, at (623) 505-1010.
Source: Cromford Report, “September Knocks the Wind Out of the Cromford® Market Index,” September 30, 2026 (cromfordreport.com). Cromford® is a registered trademark of its owner. This post is for general educational purposes and is not financial or legal advice.